Computer performance will increase rapidly in the next few years. ‘Think about possible applications in your own sector,’ Maarten Steinbuch, Professor Systems and Control at TU Eindhoven in the Netherlands suggests. ‘With cross-overs between the high-tech industry and the greenhouse-based horticultural industry, the Netherlands can stay ahead in both areas.’
Moore’s law states that the performance of a computer chip doubles every 18 months. A computer will have the same calculating ability as a human being in ten years’ time, and as much as the whole of humanity in thirty years. What will the result of this development be for society, and in particular for the greenhouse-based horticultural industry? Maarten Steinbuch, Professor Systems and Control at TU Eindhoven, sees enormous opportunities.
What is your link with horticulture?
‘The Netherlands is a forerunner when it comes to high-tech. It also has a worldwide reputation in the area of agri-food and horticulture. At the TU Eindhoven, we are carrying out research into how these two sectors can be brought together.’
With “high-tech”, you mainly think of Silicon Valley don’t you?
‘Everybody looks to Silicon Valley, but the Dutch industry is at the basis of progress, with the company ASML in Eindhoven as their flagship. That’s where wafer scanners are designed and constructed. Wafer scanners are machines that make chips and are the most critical step in the process. ASML dominates 85% of the world market and a lot of software has already been developed in the Brainport Eindhoven Region.’
How can this be applied in the horticultural industry?
‘Technological progress is associated with price and capacity of computer chips. Sensors and Integrated Circuits (ICs) are falling in price all the time. It is becoming cheaper for growers to take measurements and improve their processes. Measurements are taken per greenhouse or section, but in ten years’ time, you will pretty much be able to measure moisture condition, nutritional requirement, health, and growing conditions per individual plant.’
How fast is computer development going?
‘According to Moore’s Law, performance doubles every 18 months. That is an exponential increase. The predictions are that the computer will have the same calculating ability as a human being in ten years’ time, and as much computing power as the whole of humanity in thirty years. Computers are also learning faster, and if one has learned something, it can be copied to other computers all over the world.’
Is there a limit?
‘We expect development to continue at this speed for at least 20 years. ASML is working on the next generation of wafer scanners, which make much thinner lines on the ICs, so more calculations are possible. The quantum computer might become a reality next; this does not work in zeros and ones, but in intermediate steps. This will give a huge acceleration in computing power, maybe a thousand times faster. The development of the quantum computer is still in the stage of fundamental research.’
What will the increase in computing power mean for employment?
‘I expect that many functions will be replaced with artificial intelligence. Repetitive actions in particular, but repetitive tasks in service provision too. Receptionists, middle-management personnel, civil servants in functions that can be automated: all those sorts of jobs will disappear. That’s already happening but will accelerate rapidly. A lot has already been automated in the greenhouse-based horticultural industry. In some potted-plant nurseries, there are only very few employees; that’s where you already see the impact of automation. Another branch is robotics. Industrial robots are being used in the horticultural industry, but these are actually relatively simple “pick-and-place” machines. Some research has been carried out on robots that can harvest or pick leaves. It appears that it’s more complex and difficult to make these cost-effective. Then you realise how clever human beings really are. It’s still a challenge to make these robots cost-effective.’
Will a robot be able to replace an entrepreneur?
‘Artificial intelligence can replace knowledge. Entrepreneurship is a matter of both knowledge and intuition. Entrepreneurs can combine things, for example, a rumour that they’ve heard about a competitor. A computer will never go out for a drink to network; humans do. We can read between the lines, and think creatively.’
What should horticulture do now?
‘The Netherlands has a golden opportunity as number one in the field of agri-food and high-tech. It is a matter of developing the high-tech applications for the sector and for the individual company.’
Which forms of high-tech are you thinking about?
Systems and control technology, robotics, sensor technology, data analysis, mechanical engineering, mechatronics, the Internet of things; all of these are technologies at which we excel in the Netherlands and which we can apply profitably in the horticultural industry. You can increase knowledge quickly by working together.’
What is the Internet of things?
‘At this moment, 5 billion devices are connected to the Internet: not only computers and phones but also homes, cars, vacuum cleaners, and refrigerators. It’s expected that there will be a tenfold increase over five years; by then, 50 billion devices will be connected to the Internet.’
Can the software keep pace with hardware development? Programmers don’t become smarter exponentially.
‘I expect software to make the software in the future.’
What will the impact be on society?
‘I think that people are very resilient and creative. Ten years ago we could barely imagine it, but these days everyone is spending the whole day typing on their phones. Everybody now finds it perfectly normal to have a continuous connection to the Internet. We get used to new technologies quickly. We are also good at figuring out how we can use them. We are heading towards a society where everything is easier and better. I expect electricity to be very cheap in the future; solar panels are getting cheaper and more efficient. All very interesting.
My message is: devices are becoming better and cheaper, as is computer performance. Development will progress very rapidly. It’s good to see that measurement and control systems in horticulture are receiving a lot of attention. As a high-tech sector, we can help with this.’
Joef Sleegers
jsleegers@hortipoint.nl
Maarten Steinbuch: ’The predictions are that the computer will have the same calculating ability as a human being in ten years’
